Good news for preppers: there's finally something real to prep for. It's called climate change (CC) and it's coming for all of us. Most recent estimates (as of Feb 22) suggest the CC tipping point - the point beyond which out-of-control CC becomes inevitable because human actions will be unable to reverse natural positive feedback loops - will arrive in the next 10-15yrs. While organizations like the U.N. work as hard as they can to wrest remediation pledges from members countries; while outfits like Project Drawdown work to prioritize solutions by impact & cost; and while states ramp up their "Green New Deal" planning, it's safe to say infer that we're not going to make nearly the amount of progress we need to make in order to avert some of CC's scarier consequences, to include food/water shortages, unhealthy levels of air pollution, wildfires, storms, flood, wars, mass human migration, and mass animal extinction.
10-15yrs isn't too soon to start making the life changes you may wish to make in order to prep for the world to come. In fact, it's probably just the right horizon for decisions regarding houses, home/landscaping renovations, vehicles, investments, and family planning. Some of the recommendations herein can wait longer, but I wanted to make the list as complete as I could.
I realize this list is very (very) biased towards people who possess houses, HVAC, discretionary income. I wish this were otherwise, but there's growing awareness of the fact that CC - like many other environmental issues - tends to be accompanied by gross social injustice. As CC impacts ramp up, people who can afford to take remediation measures will take them; those who can't afford to prepare will simply be forced to make due. However, there are measures here that require little/no investment, and so should be accessible to folks at every social and economic level. If I could recommend just one of the following measures, it would be #21, Educate Yourself. Know what's coming so that you can make wise decisions about how to prepare within the bounds of your own circumstances.
- Prepare for high gas prices and gas/natural gas shortages. The sooner you stop relying on fossil fuels for your basic needs - heating, transportation - the better. Gas powered car? Propane stove or clothes dryer? Natural gas-powered HVAC? Time to start looking for replacements - energy efficient replacements, if you can get them.
- Secure a Steady, Reliable Source of Energy. It may take a while for new alternative energy grids to be able to replace the fossil fuel-dependent electrical capacity we have now. If you want to avoid brownouts on hot days, may be worth looking into whether solar power is a possibility for your home
- Pick a Resilient Hometown. Some states are going to take a hammering from climate change-spawned droughts, flooding, extreme storms, etc. Make things easier on yourself by relocating to a state that's expected to handle climate change with relative resilience. A recent article I read was recommending northern and midwestern states - from Minnesota to the West, Virginia to the South, and Maine to the North.
- Prepare for Rising Sea Levels. If you own property on or near tidal waters (ocean, tidal rivers), you may not have as much time as you think. The problem isn't that CC-inflated sea levels are going to inundate properties all at once - even the most dire predictions hover around 1-3M over the next 100 years. But once the federal government figures out that sea level rises are a fait accompli and stop issuing guaranteed flood insurance, you'll be lucky to find anyone to buy your property at any price.
- Prepare for Flooding. CC is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of rain events, leaving to devastating flooding. If you own property in a flood plain, or that has been known to flood in extreme rain events, start your flood planning now. If your risk is relatively low, it may be enough to "harden" your property to survive a major flooding event. Some ideas: re-grade your property to facilitate runoff, lay in rain gardens to store extra water, create stone walls or berms. If your risk of flooding is high, however, you may want to get out now, before the federal government stops issuing guaranteed flood insurance.
- Prepare for Wildfires. CC is expected to cause droughts that will - already are - increasing both the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Again, think about whether it makes sense to "harden" your property against wildfires by clearing brush, installing fire-resistant landscaping, or replacing your roof/building materials with fire resistant alternatives. If you live in an area that's already prone to fires, however, you may want to relocate now, while buyers optimistic enough (or clueless enough) to purchase your property still exist.
- Prepare for Storms. CC is expecting to both (1) increase the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, tornadic storms, and other malevolent weather events and (2) introduce catastrophic weather events into areas where such incidents have, heretofore, been relatively rare. Safety precautions that have worked so far (emergency warning systems, shutters, wind-resistant architecture and bug-out kits) may not be a match for a future in which Category 6 hurricanes become the norm, storms park themselves over cities for days at a time, tornadic storm systems create destruction zones 20miles wide, and record-low pressures generate winds faster than those ever seen before.
- Prepare for the Heat. The human body's heat tolerance at 100% humidity is about 95oF (50% humidity, about 109oF, 0% humidity, about 130oF). Above that, your body won’t be able to lose heat efficiently enough to maintain its core temperature and brain and organ damage ensue. As parts of the world get hotter and/or wetter, that's a lot of people one broken air conditioner away from death by heat stroke. So go fix those windows, insulate that house, install that attic fan - maybe ceiling fans too. And have a plan for what to do if the power goes out on a dangerously hot day.
- Prepare for Higher Food Prices & Food Shortages. For a variety of reasons, CC is expected to reduce food production, so take what measures you can now to prepare against higher food prices and increased food scarcity. Hoarding may be a little extreme (at least this far out), but raising chickens or establishing garden/greenhouse may be worthwhile.
- Secure Your Coffee Supply. Making coffee it's own category because (1) it's an essential resource for some, and (2) coffee supplies are uniquely imperiled by climate change due to extreme weather changes expected in the world's most productive coffee-growing regions. Stored appropriately, coffee beans don't take up a lot of space and can remain fresh for years.
- Top Off Your Wine Collection. CC is expected to devastate many legendary grape-growing regions. The good news is that warming regions of the world should be able to replace any lost quantity, but how do you replace the quality of regions like the Rhone Valley and Champaign?
- Buy a Fake Christmas Tree. Warming temps are expected to increase populations of tree-destroying diseases and pests. If Christmas is something your family does, consider swallowing your revulsion and buying now, before prices for the fake ones go through the roof. Santa Claus will understand
- Prepare for Water Scarcity. While CC is expected to bring too much rain to some places, it's expected to drastically reduce rain in others. Areas that are already suffering drought and/or overdrawing their aquafers are going to be especially at risk. Jobs that rely on water - agriculture, dairies, mills, oil/gas, beverage industry - may also be threatened. Some actions you may want to take: diversify your job options as necessary, purchase low-water appliances, invest in drought-resistant landscaping, and lay in rain barrels to capture what rain you get (especially if you need a secure supply for watering a garden).
- Prepare for the Impact of CC on Sports & Recreation. It's not just about the death of winter sports we're talking about here. It's also about temps too hot to permit outdoor sports like golf, youth/adult sports leagues, and running/marathons, and air pollution so dangerous, outdoor sports pose a potential danger to respiratory health that dwarf any potential health gains. If your sports/recreation regimen includes outdoors activities, make sure not to squander the time you have left! And start thinking about alternatives that could replace these staples down the road.
- Prepare for the Impact of CC on Health. The last UN report on CC listed over a dozen ways in which CC is likely to impact health. So before you make any decisions about relocating the family or self-insuring yourself for health, consider the impact that declining air quality may have on respiratory issues such as asthma and allergies; the increased risk of heat-related illness (especially in areas where air conditioning is unavailable); the resurgence of insect-borne diseases in warm, moist climates; and the growing evidence linking CC with complications related to pregnancy, cardiac health, and mental health.
- Consider the Impact of CC on Vacation Planning. By the time you get around to going where you want to go, where you want to go may not be there any more! Some destinations you may wish to prioritize over the next decade, before they disappear:
- Cities imperiled by sea level rise (ex: New Orleans, Key West, North Carolina's Outer Banks,Venice)
- Cultural landmarks imperiled by extreme weather or sea level rise (Easter Island, Greek Islands, Tyre, Ephesus)
- Cold-weather destinations imperiled by glacial and sea ice melting (ex: Glacier National Park, Greenland, Alaskan cruises, Antarctica)
- Forest/rainforest destinations imperiled by by heat/wildfires (ex: Amazon rainforest, Redwoods National Park)
- Diving/snorkling excursions imperiled by ocean acidification and coral reef death (ex: Great Barrier Reef)
- Prepare for Higher Prices for Everything. Observing the impact of Covid on our economy has reminded folks of the consequences of too much money chasing too few resources: supply chain hiccups, shortages, and inflation. Now imagine that the countries producing most of our goods - India, China - are coping with extreme food/water shortages, mass migration, extreme political corruption, and regional/world wars. (Why? At least a dozen reasons, but let's lead with the fact that when the Himalayan glaciers melt, the Ganges, Indus, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow Rivers - which collectively provide water for billions of people - will run dry. That alone will create chaos.) Some measures you may want to consider: buying houses, cars, and durable goods (furniture, appliances) sooner rather than later; shopping smarter (really look for those deals); and developing the habit of living more sustainably (ex: shop at thrift stores, recycle fashion, join local groups committed to reuse)
- Secure Your Savings. If you're lucky enough to have money salted away in savings or retirement accounts, worth thinking about how that money is invested. Are your prepared to survive long-term global downturns in corporate profitability and government spending? Are the companies you've invested in set to remain sustainable? This may be the time to start "greening" your portfolio by investing in the techs that are going to be required in a post CC world
- Prepare for the Impact of Climate Migration. As food/water resources shift, as heat/wildfires make areas uninhabitable, and as wars over scarce resources erupt worldwide, pundits predict historically unprecedented numbers of immigrants seeking a new life. The impacts of climate migration will vary hugely based on where you live, but may be worth considering. If you are in an area likely to be flooded with migrants, what can you do now to secure the needs of your family while growing your community's social safety net so that you can provide for those who are on their way?
- Contemplate Your Family Planning. If you're starting to think about how many children you're going to plan on bringing into the world, it may be worth considering the world into which you may be bringing them. A world in which wars over scarce resources may be the norm rather than an aberration. A world in which climate migrants may be fleeing from border to border, begging for entry. A world in which gaps between rich and poor may be exacerbated by the scarcity of critical resources (food, water, shelter). It may be worth factoring into your planning the extent to which you will be able to protect and support children in a world where everything - from food to clothes to daycare - will be much more expensive, where housing and jobs may be harder to find, where political instability may be more pervasive, and where your country's military forces may find themselves engaged in more conflicts than ever before.
- Educate Yourself. People have been lying about CC for a long time now, and it's logical to expect the lies to ramp up as CC increasingly impact our lives. Energy companies anxious to convince us that their coal is "clean," that natural gas "isn't really a fossil fuel," that fracking/pipelines "are a great way to secure our energy needs against foreign manipulation." Companies eager to convince us that carbon neutral is the same thing as carbon positive or to assure us that they're "planting enough trees" to offset the harm. Politicians anxious to convince us that candidates who support green initiatives are "secretly trying to impose a socialist agenda," "intent on driving up tax/gas/oil prices" or "destroying the U.S economy." Find unbiased sources and educate yourself about CC realities and myths so that you know when you're being lied to, and so that you can make educated, rational choices (vs. emotional, ineffective choices) about how to utilize the resources we have (tax dollars, tech) to most efficiently and effectively address the coming crisis.
- Prepare to be Part of the Solution. Fixing climate change is going to be like trying to build a beach in the middle of a hurricane - while countries may have the resources to bring in the cranes & heavy equipment that will be needed to get the job started, it's going to take trillions of grains of sand - trillions of individual acts of conservation and sustainability - to make the beach happen. So start thinking now about what you can do help get that beach firmly established, before the storm hits.
The author is a scientist and teacher who has worked as a researcher/analyst for Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, a DC-based think thank, and is a member of the Leadership Corps of Climate Reality, the climate awareness organization founded by former Vice President Al Gore.
